Comments on: keeping them honest http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/ Northwest Boarder snowboarding snowboards surfing surfboards skateboarding skateboards Thu, 09 Sep 2010 21:10:42 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: john http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-111 john Thu, 11 Mar 2010 00:50:27 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-111 something else i like on snow-forecast is that they've been way accurate about freezing elevations. so if noaa is predicting 8-12, look at snow-forecasts freezing level before you get your hopes up. something else i like on snow-forecast is that they’ve been way accurate about freezing elevations. so if noaa is predicting 8-12, look at snow-forecasts freezing level before you get your hopes up.

]]> By: Landon http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-108 Landon Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:03:10 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-108 UPDATE - On Wednesday morning at 10am, the official snow totals from this storm are 7 inches. Let's look back at the forecasts... hmmmm. Snowforecast was 2.5 inches under, and NOAA was 22 inches over. I didn't see that coming did I. So keep your eyes on the storms folks. And make your own calls as to whether or not it's going to dump. Because your guess is as good as any when it comes to forecasting predicted snow totals. UPDATE – On Wednesday morning at 10am, the official snow totals from this storm are 7 inches. Let’s look back at the forecasts… hmmmm. Snowforecast was 2.5 inches under, and NOAA was 22 inches over. I didn’t see that coming did I.

So keep your eyes on the storms folks. And make your own calls as to whether or not it’s going to dump. Because your guess is as good as any when it comes to forecasting predicted snow totals.

]]> By: Landon http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-107 Landon Wed, 10 Mar 2010 07:38:23 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-107 UPDATE - At 11:35pm Tuesday Night - Meadows is reporting 4 inches in the last 24 hours. So it snowed 4 inches on Tuesday, which would mean at this exact moment, Snow-forecast is only .3 inches off from what they predicted on Monday. And NOAA is a whopping 25 inches off from the max they reported on Monday. NOAA is now predicting 8-12 inches possible for tonight, while snow-forecast adjusted their prediction to 5.1 for the Tuesday totals. Stay tuned folks... more monitoring to follow tomorrow. But so far it seems that Snow-forecast is looking to have predicted this storm spot on. But who knows, maybe we will wake up and there will be a foot of fresh on the ground. And don't get me wrong - I want that more then anyone. And if that comes, I'll be the first one to call in sick. Talk to you in the morning. UPDATE – At 11:35pm Tuesday Night – Meadows is reporting 4 inches in the last 24 hours. So it snowed 4 inches on Tuesday, which would mean at this exact moment, Snow-forecast is only .3 inches off from what they predicted on Monday. And NOAA is a whopping 25 inches off from the max they reported on Monday. NOAA is now predicting 8-12 inches possible for tonight, while snow-forecast adjusted their prediction to 5.1 for the Tuesday totals.

Stay tuned folks… more monitoring to follow tomorrow. But so far it seems that Snow-forecast is looking to have predicted this storm spot on. But who knows, maybe we will wake up and there will be a foot of fresh on the ground. And don’t get me wrong – I want that more then anyone. And if that comes, I’ll be the first one to call in sick. Talk to you in the morning.

]]> By: clint http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-105 clint Tue, 09 Mar 2010 23:41:15 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-105 I think part of the issue of course is that snow accumulation depends so much on wind direction and speed. The snow levels look very different on different parts of Meadows depending on the type of storm and that part is extremely hard to predict I'd imagine. With regards to NOAA, I think their priority is probably the big stuff: keeping the roads, rails, ports and airports open (or at least prepared for issues). Remember when we had that unexpected snow fall in town a couple month ago and it made a huge mess. There was a lot of criticism of the weather services for getting it wrong. if that happened on Highways 35 and 26, because they didn't have the plows ready, the added costs for shipping delays, etc. would be huge and someone would get in a bunch of trouble...but if it drives a few more people to the mountain to spend money, its a bonus. I think part of the issue of course is that snow accumulation depends so much on wind direction and speed. The snow levels look very different on different parts of Meadows depending on the type of storm and that part is extremely hard to predict I’d imagine.

With regards to NOAA, I think their priority is probably the big stuff: keeping the roads, rails, ports and airports open (or at least prepared for issues). Remember when we had that unexpected snow fall in town a couple month ago and it made a huge mess. There was a lot of criticism of the weather services for getting it wrong. if that happened on Highways 35 and 26, because they didn’t have the plows ready, the added costs for shipping delays, etc. would be huge and someone would get in a bunch of trouble…but if it drives a few more people to the mountain to spend money, its a bonus.

]]> By: Landon http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-102 Landon Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:50:23 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-102 Thanks guys for your responses - this is something that I have always thought was very weird here in the Northwest. It just seems bizarre to me that NOAA can be so off reporting snow totals storm after storm. Clint - very interesting that NOAA is part of the US Department of Commerce. I had no idea. Could that then mean that they possibly over-forecast hoping to drive traffic to folks going to the mountains for recreational activities? Karim - You are right about Meteorology being a science. I guess with the fluctuation of the reporting being all over the place, there just doesn't seem to be a scientific way of accurately forecasting snow totals. And if there is, NOAA is not using it. But then again, they were correct about the 3 inches yesterday. So go figure. Thanks guys for your responses – this is something that I have always thought was very weird here in the Northwest. It just seems bizarre to me that NOAA can be so off reporting snow totals storm after storm.

Clint – very interesting that NOAA is part of the US Department of Commerce. I had no idea. Could that then mean that they possibly over-forecast hoping to drive traffic to folks going to the mountains for recreational activities?

Karim – You are right about Meteorology being a science. I guess with the fluctuation of the reporting being all over the place, there just doesn’t seem to be a scientific way of accurately forecasting snow totals. And if there is, NOAA is not using it.

But then again, they were correct about the 3 inches yesterday. So go figure.

]]> By: Karim Hadid http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-101 Karim Hadid Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:39:03 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-101 Such a rad article. I've been checking both sites and also wonder how they can be that far off. I too follow the weather very closely and agree with your comparison. My only disagreement is with the part where you mention that predicting snowfall is not a science. Meteorology is very much a science, but far from an exact science that's for sure; especially in the NW. Great website btw! Such a rad article. I’ve been checking both sites and also wonder how they can be that far off. I too follow the weather very closely and agree with your comparison. My only disagreement is with the part where you mention that predicting snowfall is not a science. Meteorology is very much a science, but far from an exact science that’s for sure; especially in the NW. Great website btw!

]]> By: Landon http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-100 Landon Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:37:25 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-100 UPDATE - Well it did snow 3 inches yesterday, so I would say that NOAA was correct for the forecast on Monday. And they have down graded their report for Tuesday night to 6-10 inches. That's a half of a foot downgrade. Snow-forecast has held steady still reporting 4.3 inches for today. Check back tonight to see who gets the closest to their predictions. UPDATE – Well it did snow 3 inches yesterday, so I would say that NOAA was correct for the forecast on Monday. And they have down graded their report for Tuesday night to 6-10 inches. That’s a half of a foot downgrade.

Snow-forecast has held steady still reporting 4.3 inches for today. Check back tonight to see who gets the closest to their predictions.

]]> By: clint http://www.northwestboarder.com/2010/03/x-marks-the-spot/comment-page-1/#comment-99 clint Tue, 09 Mar 2010 05:40:35 +0000 http://www.northwestboarder.com/?p=530#comment-99 Glad you're doing this...I'm inclined, like you, to believe snow-forecast. When you keep in mind that NOAA is a part of the US Department of Commerce and that their primary mission is to protect commerce of the nation it makes sense that they would overshoot on snow in the mountains. Better to overpredict and be wrong than to underpredict and have the highways tied up because ODOT wasn't prepared. Glad you’re doing this…I’m inclined, like you, to believe snow-forecast. When you keep in mind that NOAA is a part of the US Department of Commerce and that their primary mission is to protect commerce of the nation it makes sense that they would overshoot on snow in the mountains. Better to overpredict and be wrong than to underpredict and have the highways tied up because ODOT wasn’t prepared.

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